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Hannes

WW3 2020?

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I don't know what to think of this but it quickly seems to become a possibility.

Any people with anything to say about this? Please feel welcome.

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know one can say a date for sure, it is also said that for anything to happen in the physical it must first happen in the astral...

 

note, the earth is wounded but her song is not broken and will prevail in the end.  

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If the question is regarding Iran's response to the assassination of General Soleimani, my impression is that the Iranian leadership is very cautious and calculating. My guess is that their retaliation will be more cunning than spectacular. They are prepared, if necessary, to endure a full scale war but they certainly don't want it. The Americans' tendency to hit nails with sledgehammers, of course, can't be ruled out but even in the US leadership there are people who realize that a full-blown war with Iran would be an utter disaster.

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Posted (edited)

my 2 bits.  I think WWIII is, thankfully an exaggeration.  If nothing else the US & Iran are probably somewhat short on friends, especially in a self inflicted conflict.  That's not to say war isn't in the cards.  The US is sadly bomb, drone and missile happy but very reluctant to send in physical troops.  Iran has a tendency to fight through proxy, having zealots and encouraging third parties to attack targets of opportunities. 

 

Many wildcards, modern weapons are too powerful to be used for bluster and bluff.  Hmnn don't need a world war to be greatly destructive, kill 10,000s, maim 100,000s and torch billions in property. 

 

 

Edited by thelerner

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Posted (edited)

Iran has enough friends- good friends- in Iraq and the Levant to make any war a nightmare for the US and regional allies. Likewise their drone and missile capabilities spell pretty much instant death for Gulf States- remember how much havoc the Houthis caused Saudi last year with just a handful of drones. And any navy foolish enough to  enter the Persian Gulf is toast. Not that Iran wouldn't suffer- the suffering would be horrific- but Iran will endure it. The US can't endure a fraction of it. Even Trump, somewhere in his jello brain, must know this. That's why I think it's still unlikely a full-scale war would happen. But of course I may well be underestimating the stupidity of a profoundly stupid man.

Edited by SirPalomides

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a real wwlll would probably result in 99.99 % of all human life destroyed along with a tremendous amount of destruction for most all other lifeforms. 

 

no more internet folks....

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18 hours ago, Hannes said:

I don't know what to think of this but it quickly seems to become a possibility.

Any people with anything to say about this? Please feel welcome.

 

Humanity closely mimics a malignant tumor to me in so many ways.

As we get more populous, conflict is inevitable.

We even love killing each other when population is sparse

We are killing off so many other life forms, including ourselves.

It breaks my heart and yet there's a farcical side.

I am trying to live fully, love as much as possible, relish the freedom and peace I currently live in, and cry sometimes.

Not sure what else to say.

Oh yea, VOTE 

and FUCK TRUMP

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, old3bob said:

a real wwlll would probably result in 99.99 % of all human life destroyed along with a tremendous amount of destruction for most all other lifeforms. 

 

no more internet folks....

No more internet, thats, that's impossible.  where would i get my stuff.

 

I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.

 

Sticks & Stones may break my bones but names will never hurt me.

Me circa 1972

Edited by thelerner
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On 1/6/2020 at 5:55 AM, Hannes said:

I don't know what to think of this but it quickly seems to become a possibility.

Any people with anything to say about this? Please feel welcome.

Don't expect WW3 any time soon.

A war through proxies maybe.

 

We are not in the position of WW1 or WW2 with the immense militirisation of all involved parties. Yes military expenditure is climbing again but it is lower than the 90s and military capability of all possibly involved nations in a WW3 is severely diminished since the collapse of the soviet union. Only China has increased it's capabilities but they are still no match for US or Russian armies.

 

The US is in no position to attack Iran head on. Iran isn't Iraq. I am not saying that the US can't prevail, of course it can, but the death toll and materiel losses will be very different compared to any other operation it has mounted in recent history.

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Posted (edited)

 

a black hole of evil hunger knows no bounds or geo-political reasoning's,  this can be verified in a way when one has seen their own potential for or recovered from states of evils grip,  it is then that they also know in principle of the possible macro-evil that can be.  (granted such evils can only reach so far and can be overcome personally and also on a worldwide scale but if it is not then the set-back and suffering for the Earth realm and for much of mankind would apparently be in millions or even billions of years...) 

 

 

Edited by old3bob

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8 hours ago, Zork said:

 

The US is in no position to attack Iran head on. Iran isn't Iraq. I am not saying that the US can't prevail, of course it can, but the death toll and materiel losses will be very different compared to any other operation it has mounted in recent history.

 

I guess it depends on what is meant by "prevail". The US, in one sense, prevailed in Afghanistan 18 years ago, but now it is clear that the Taliban are the real victors. Likewise the Iraq invasion destroyed Saddam's government but was an enormous gift to Iran, allowing them unprecedented influence in the region.

 

I have a hard time seeing the US prevailing even in the short-term sense- occupying Iran,  whether you look at geography, politics, or military technology- would be an utter nightmare for US forces. It would be a nightmare for Iranians too, but they aren't going anywhere. The simple truth of a successful insurgency isn't winning battles but hanging on for long enough for the invader to get sick of losing men and money. Unlike Saddam's Iraq, Iran is a cohesive nation. Even Iranians who- for good reason- despise the current government, will rally to their country against the US, just as they did in the 80's against Saddam. So I don't think the US could even make it as far as successfully invading the country. And if they do, they're definitely not going to hold on to it.

 

And the other thing is that, if the US wanted to kill Soleimani, they should have done it back in '03. Since then he worked tirelessly to build alliances and coalitions throughout the region- Hezbollah, Houthis, the Syrian government and allies, Iraqi militia movements. Iran now has numerous tough and loyal friends who are itching to hit at the empire that has fomented so much misery and chaos in their region. They don't even have to hit at US troops directly- Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel are eminently targetable. The Gulf States in particular are really vulnerable- someone fittingly compared them to moon colonies, because, at their present level of population, they are utterly dependent on expensive and very fragile technologies to make life livable in their harsh climates. A few well-placed strikes on the water desalination plants and oil refineries would ruin those countries virtually overnight. And while the average American may not care much about what happens to the inhabitants of the Arabian peninsula, they would not be so indifferent to the exponential spikes in gas prices.

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had a flashback of eating chow at an air force training base in Texas with Iranian  soldiers back in the early 70's, my how things have changed.

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12 minutes ago, old3bob said:

had a flashback of eating chow at an air force training base in Texas with Iranian  soldiers back in the early 70's, my how things have changed.

 

What do you mean "changed?"  Hasn't Oceania always been at war with Eurasia?..

 

(Apologies to anyone who didn't get the reference.  It was a joke.  A sad one.)   

 

I got a ride recently from an Iranian Uber driver who told me a bit about those times.  He used to be a translator/interpreter at American training bases in Iran.      

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For some reason the 1979 Revolution (and the hostage crisis) was almost like a national martyrdom for Americans at that time... that's how humiliating it was, and the American establishment can't forgive Iran for it. There was actually a very brief period after 9/11 where the Iranian government was happily collaborating with the US re: Afghanistan, providing all kinds of good intelligence, because they hated the Taliban. Then Bush Jr gave his "Axis of Evil" speech.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, old3bob said:

had a flashback of eating chow at an air force training base in Texas with Iranian  soldiers back in the early 70's, my how things have changed.

 

I worked in refugee relocation after the 79 revolution - we had a heap of Iranians  here . Also, my boss is Iranian . Also I had a bit to do with the Bahai's  (mostly Iranians ) .   Many a story I heard about pre revolution Iran .

 

And what a history the place has !

 

Some snippets ;

It had a vast  ancient empire, of course . But in recent times  was bigger than now -  problems with Russia

 

330px-Gulistan-Treaty.jpg

 

A map showing the 19th-century northwestern borders of Iran, comprising modern-day eastern Georgia, Dagestan, Armenia, and the Republic of Azerbaijan, before being ceded to the neighboring Russian Empire by the Russo-Iranian wars.

 

and problems with USA ;

 

In 1951, Mohammad Mosaddegh was appointed as the Prime Minister. He became enormously popular in Iran after he nationalized Iran's petroleum industry and oil reserves. He was deposed in the 1953 Iranian coup d'état, an Anglo-American covert operation that marked the first time the United States had participated in the overthrow of a foreign government during the Cold War.

 

After the coup, the Shah became increasingly autocratic and sultanistic, and Iran entered a phase of decades-long controversial close relations with the United States and some other foreign governments.[160] While the Shah increasingly modernized Iran and claimed to retain it as a fully secular state,[30] arbitrary arrests and torture by his secret police, the SAVAK, were used to crush all forms of political opposition

 

- Wiki

 

How many times have seen state terrorism evolve in a country  out of a 'liberation' by  western forces and an installation  of a new state head  ?

 

 

Edited by Nungali
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14 minutes ago, ralis said:

 

Trump brought this on without one thought of potential consequences! :angry:

 

Business as usual for the [word removed by system]. 

 

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/01/how-trumps-trade-war-is-making-lobbyists-rich-and-slamming-small-businesses/

 

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/01/trump-should-know-about-irans-revolutionary-guard-he-did-business-with-people-linked-to-it/

 

Buuuuut.... let's drop the Trump talk before it goes the way it used to go here....

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Posted (edited)

it can't go on the way it used to be with the present moderators (can it)  so why fear that?  

 

 

Edited by old3bob

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12 minutes ago, old3bob said:

it can't go on the way it used to be with the present moderators (can it)  so why fear that?  

 

 


Insta-ban is the new normal here, in case you weren’t aware.

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