nCov19 Development and Prevention Discussion Only

[Starjumper]

In the last four days in Ecuador the cases went from 23 to 37 to 58 to 113, and according to presidential and local decrees, everything has stopped.  No airline travel, no interprovincial travel, no intercity travel and a lot of local buses have stopped running.  Everyone is supposed to stay at home unless they are out to buy gas, food, medical supplies, go to the bank, or are in one of the medical professions.  Police and army are out with road blocks everywhere to check on travelers.  I need to drive an hour to get to the nearest gas station.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Starjumper

[Starjumper]

There is more news, some locals in remote areas are dropping trees across the roads to stop traffic and prevent the virus from reaching them.  It is predicted there will be more civil unrest and highway robbery in the areas of small towns.

[Spotless]

All the best to you out there StarJumper

[GSmaster]

Damn this thing hitted the whole world even remote areas are suffering.

 

There is panic in outskirts of russia that has no cases at all, and the shelfs of the markets are already empty!

[GSmaster]

[Miffymog]

The British government's approach was initially to just let every one get it (all be it, not all at the same time). This would then, hopefully, reduce the issues around secondary wave pandemics. But the outcry at letting hundreds of thousands die has meant there's been a slight increase in response.

 

The rules about quarantine are still relatively lax, with schools being allowed to continue. The idea being that we might be able to hobble on until the Easter Holidays and then take it from there. School kids at home mean care workers have to take time off to look after them.

 

The initial sound bites of 'herd immunity' have been changed to 'flatten the peak' so that health care system can cope.

 

It's hitting London sooner than me who lives up North, the difference is meant to be at least 2 weeks. The problem here is that national advice does not well apply to everyone.

 

I actually clean at the local hospital - we're being prepared for it by having face masks safety tested, but it's yet to kick off here.

 

 

[C T]

 

Video removed by source. 

 

Strangely, its still available on youtube. Search Wolfgang Wodard Stunning Insights into the Corona-panic. 

Edited March 18, 2020 by C T

[moment]

6 hours ago, GSmaster said:

 

Very useful. Thank you!

[C T]

1 hour ago, moment said:

 

Very useful. Thank you!

It'd be most interesting to see similar trajectories and concise data points (rates of infection especially) for flu epidemics over the last 5 years to determine if this covid 19 attack is really that unprecedented. If such graphs exist (which I have doubts about), a lot of conspiracy theories and uncertainties can be put to bed. 

[C T]

Now, every single new victim who succumbs to the flu will be attributed to covid 19, even if its some other dominant strain that did the damage. 

[thelerner]

9 hours ago, GSmaster said:

Good chart.  The scale seems to be logarithmic.  China in the last 10 days has beaten the 33% exponential growth curve of infection.  That's very good news.  This chart bears watching to see if and when other trajectories start flattening out and when they go down.  So many unknowns. 

 

There is the hope the disease follows a bell curve and goes away, but there's a chance it's more a 'simmer' ie it never goes away, like the pneumonia or cancer its an opportunistic disease that keeps coming back and we learn to live with it. 

 

<another thought, since its based on Cumulative cases, when the line flattens, in some ways, the number of infected is going down because (hopefully most) recover and some die, thus when the line is moving flat, numbers might be going down.  **Except for all the cases we don't know about, and potential of those cases to infect others.  some camels have 2 humps.>

Edited March 18, 2020 by thelerner

[rideforever]

1 hour ago, thelerner said:

Good chart. 

 

If the figures are not infections per million population ... then its a stupid chart.

Also it's wrong, in nearly all countries we have entered a rapid exponential rise.All except China/S.Korea who have take severe action.

 

Charts

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Edited March 18, 2020 by rideforever

[rideforever]

 

The End State

 

The stewardship should be based on what end state you are aiming for.  If you try to suppress the virus so that only 5% of the population gets it ... this will have to be manged continuously for 3 to 5 years !!!!! 

Not only that, but the immunity of the herd will not function properly because as the immunity of some dies down ... others will get it, and it will bounce around. 

It's worth a shot to suppress it, but after a few weeks you give up.

 

If you take no action then the virus is spent in 3 months with herd immunity in place.  End of.  This is what herd immunity is for.

 

In the UK it is forecasted that taking no action means the NHS will be overcapacity by 25x (2500%) at the peak.  But if you take supressive action you will still be 800% at the peak, and there will be several peaks.  So you cannot protect the NHS by trying to suppress it, the army must be used.

 

Therefore, BoJo can try to suppress it for a few weeks, its worth a shot ... but imo ... we quickly move to the situation that it is better to infect the entire country right now and its done in 3 months. 

And the only action you take is to give the old people anti virals best you can.

Then you get the Army to make makeshift hospital spaces and basic ventilators and you each council has weekly funerals, cremations and shared graves.

Then after 3 months it's done.

 

Otherwise you have a 3+ year economic disaster, all for a flu.

 

Anyway, you can see how stupidly our phoney society is managed, how little intelligence or knowledge or resilience there is.  How many articles have you read from experts who don't know anything ??   

As for this society, you reap what you sow.  

 

World Economic Forum Model

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/3-charts-that-changed-coronavirus-policy-in-the-uk-and-us/

Edited March 18, 2020 by rideforever

[rideforever]

Death by Age

 

AGE                 DEATH RATE

80+ years old         36.7%
70-79 years old     8.0%
60-69 years old        3.6%

50-59 years old        1.3%
40-49 years old        0.4%
30-39 years old        0.2%
20-29 years old        0.2%
10-19 years old        0.2%
0-9 years old        no fatalities
 

 

Basically if you are 60 or less you have very little chance of dying.

Under 50 almost impossible to die.

So what the fuck are we closing schools and businesses for ... old people are going to them anyway.

Old people can go home and drink Redoxen.

[Leif]

7 minutes ago, rideforever said:

So what the fuck are we closing schools and businesses for ... old people are going to them anyway.

 

Where I live (Czech r.), the reason for closing schools and businesses has been explained, as to hold back the growth of the number of people infected, to slow it down a bit, so that healthcare capacities suffice to handle the critically ill (so that healthcare doesn't end up like in less fortunate countries, where they have to decide who gets air ventilation and who is out of luck because of lack of these medical devices. They even came with some scientifically based simulation and numbers for that, which I don't remember anymore.

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Leif

[rideforever]

Just now, Leif said:

Czech

 

It sounds nice, and will win many votes.  Talking about healthcare wins many votes.

In the UK the forecast are that if you suppress it then we will have 800% overcapacity ... this means there will be 8 people for every 1 bed in the hospital.   At the peak of the virus.

So even if you suppress it you will need the army.

And if you suppress it you may kill many more people in the country, in 3 years time, because the normal evolutionary immunity is not allowed to function normally.

Normally herd immunity happens quickly and the virus is finished in 3 months.

Also you will destroy your country's economy.

 

So, I think it is worth trying to suppress it for a few weeks until the summer, afterwards ... forget it. 

Just open up everything.

[liminal_luke]

It´s worth it to close kid´s schools and prevent infections among kids, even if those infections will be very minor, because kids don´t live in bubbles: they come home to older parents and grandparents who could be infected and more vulnerable.

[rideforever]

7 minutes ago, liminal_luke said:

It´s worth it to close kid´s schools and prevent infections among kids, even if those infections will be very minor, because kids don´t live in bubbles: they come home to older parents and grandparents who could be infected and more vulnerable.

 

If you send kids home then their grandparents will have to look after them whilst parents are at work.
Which will kill the grandparents.

Children and young people very rarely get infected so they should stay at school and not hang around at home infecting the older generations.

[thelerner]

We will see.  Some countries have a head start on others.  Most are using a suppression, lower the curve, strategy.  Probably some aren't.  With statistics we should get real data on whether the Do Nothing strategy is best in the end or rather buying time with social isolation works.  Rideforever is right that its a politically unpopular strategy, but it'd be a disaster to do, then have a vaccine or treatment pop up a little later that saves the day, after your nation has suffered losses.

 

Are there any countries that fit the Do Nothing strategy?  England was headed that way but changed course. 

https://www.technologyreview.com/f/615369/uk-dropping-coronavirus-herd-immunity-strategy-250000-dead/

"..Sharp realizations: That strategy was met with fierce criticism over the weekend. The Covid-19 Response Team based at Imperial College in London revealed on Monday that the government’s experts realized only over the last few days that its policy would “likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths”—potentially 250,000—and that the burden on health systems would exceed their capacities and resources by as much as eight times.

"We were expecting herd immunity to build,” Azra Ghani, head of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College, told reporters Monday. “We now realize it’s not possible to cope with that.” Instead, the report advocates suppressing the virus with aggressive measures that would keep case numbers consistently low, in line with what many other countries are doing. 

Correcting the ship: The UK government seems to have realized its errors and is now scrambling to to do better. On Monday, Johnson asked people to avoid “non-essential contact” and refrain from going to crowded spaces and venues. A ban on mass gatherings starts Tuesday. Families were urged to stay home for 14 days should any members exhibit symptoms, not going out “even to buy food or essentials.”

“The aim now is not to slow the rate of growth of cases, but pull the epidemic in reverse,” Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College, told reporters Monday. “Hopefully there will [only] be tens of thousands of deaths. Maybe just a few thousand.”

Unfortunately, the report also suggests that isolation and social distancing might have to remain in effect until a viable coronavirus vaccine is produced, which could take as long as 18 months. “The only exit strategy is really vaccination or other forms of innovative technology,” Ferguson.

This story is part of our ongoing coverage of the coronavirus/Covid-19 outbreak. You can also sign up to our dedicated newsletter."

[Earl Grey]

Rudeforever spams another thread with ignorant drivel. I wonder what people like him would say if they got the damn thing themselves and put their friends and relatives at risk.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Earl Grey

[moment]

1 hour ago, rideforever said:

 

If the figures are not infections per million population ... then its a stupid chart.

Also it's wrong, in nearly all countries we have entered a rapid exponential rise.All except China/S.Korea who have take severe action.

 

Charts

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

You need to educate yourself on communication skills since you are using a communication media.Here then lets try this: delete it is a stupid chart to: I disagree with this chart because----.  So many people on TDB think that large exclamations and undue swagger is a sign of strength when it is the exact opposite.  So many strong, intelligent people here on TDB, have been giving this lack of skills so much patience but, in this environment I find mine failing.

[Earl Grey]

Just now, moment said:

 

You need to educate yourself on communication skills since you are using a communication media.Here then lets try this: delete it is a stupid chart to: I disagree with this chart because----.  So many people on TDB think that large exclamations and undue swagger is a sign of strength when it is the exact opposite.  So many strong, intelligent people here on TDB, have been giving this lack of skills so much patience but, in this environment I find mine failing.

Amen.

[SirPalomides]

Among various proposed treatments, one from Cuba is showing promise:

 

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Cubas-Interferon-Alpha-2B-Successful-in-Treating-COVID-19-20200317-0015.html

[rideforever]

10 minutes ago, moment said:

communication skills

 

Sure, just look at the lynchmobs dancing around Heartbbreakers threads.

Even some "teachers" (of what I don't know) getting involved.

Honing insults is the whole point of tdb for many these days.

[thelerner]

12 hours ago, GSmaster said:

 

1 hour ago, rideforever said:

Also it's wrong, in nearly all countries we have entered a rapid exponential rise.All except China/S.Korea who have take severe action.  

while he could be more diplomatic, rideforever brought up an interesting point about Do Nothing vs Suppression strategy.

Anyhow, to me the above chart shows that amongst countries with the earliest infection, that the rate of infection isn't growing exponentially, ie along the 33% increase (dotted) line. 

Early on most countries (except early quarantine Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong) follow the 33% exponential line.  I see the chart showing as time goes on, most countries are moving below it.  Remember this chart since its cumulative amount will never a bell curve. 

 

Less people getting infected should be a good thing, ie buy hospitals time to treat the most devastated (old or not).  Or at least help in that direction.  Though the Do Nothing theory is take the hit/high casualties in 2 or 3 months, or risk not developing long term herd immunity and getting a contagion that drags on as well as long term economic devastation.

 

My guess is both will happen.  We'll try to suppress, buy time, but economic forces will shatter social isolation and maybe that natural mix will be.. idk