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Ice-free Arctic in two years heralds methane catastrophe – scientist

Professor Peter Wadhams, co-author of new Nature paper on costs of Arctic warming, explains the danger of inaction

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jul/24/arctic-ice-free-methane-economy-catastrophe?CMP=twt_fd

 

 

This, however, departs significantly from empirical observations of the rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice which is heading for disappearance within two or three years according to Nature co-author and renowned Arctic expert Prof Peter Wadhams, head of the Polar ocean physics group at Cambridge University.If Prof Wadhams is correct in his forecast that the summer sea ice could be gone by 2015, then we might be closer to the tipping point than we realise

 

Edited by pythagoreanfulllotus

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How many rotations does the sun make in an earth year? :D

 

 

14 or 15, based on roughly a 25 day period about the energetics at the equator.

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this one part of my yard is steeper than mount everest, if I zoom up closely enough, I can extrapolate that it is also taller :lol: awesome links guys

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Arctic methane catastrophe scenario is based on new empirical observations

 

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/jul/31/artic-methane-catastrophe-empirical-evidence

 

 

Last week, the journal Nature published a new paper warning of a $60 trillion price tag for a potential 50 Gigatonne methane pulse from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) over 10-50 years this century.

 

Wow 60 trillion is the same amount currently in global speculative finance zipping around the globe.

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Exactly why does the Cato Institute which is a Koch Bros. funded institution be allowed to debate in this forum? Cato represents corporate interests and does not represent the good of the planet!

 

Dr. Patrick Michaels receives money from the oil industry. I would say his work is biased.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Michaels

 

 

On July 27, 2006 ABC News reported that a Colorado energy cooperative, the Intermountain Rural Electric Association, had given Michaels $100,000.[36] An Associated Press report said that the donations had been made after Michaels had "told Western business leaders ... that he was running out of money for his analyses of other scientists' global warming research" and noted that the cooperative had a vested interest in opposing mandatory carbon dioxide caps, a situation that raised conflict of interest concerns.[37]

Patrick Michaels acknowledged on CNN that 40 per cent of his funding came from the oil industry.[38] According to Fred Pearce, fossil fuel companies have helped fund Michaels' projects, including his World Climate Report, published every year since 1994, and his "advocacy science consulting firm", New Hope Environmental Services.

 

 

 

Edited by ralis

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yep ever since Ray-Gun's Fascist revolution - when the Fairness Doctrine for the media was dismantled....

 

Now the CIA control of the news... and Big Oil -- Bush Dynasty, etc.

 

Ray-Gun worked for big business as an actor-spokesmen! haha. He personified the conflict of interest problem.

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http://www.livescience.com/38347-north-pole-ice-melt-lake.html

 

North Pole Now a Lake
By Becky Oskin, Staff Writer | July 23, 2013 11:20am ET

 

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/10/04/arctic-sea-ice-controlled-by-winter-winds/

 

The NSIDC graphic below shows how almost all of the five+ year old ice was pushed out into the North Atlantic during the winters from 1988 to 1996. This coincided with the most positive ENSO period on record. (and what have we seen enso do lately?)

 

1988-1996_oldice21.gif?w=640

 

 

BVIbFt7CMAAkts9.jpg

 

 

from the comments

You believe what you want, but the facts are:

(0) All the arguments presented in the article you linked have been repeatedly debunked by Steve’s posts in this blog, e.g.

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/10/07/huge-increase-in-five-year-old-ice-coming-next-year/?replytocom=280428#respond

(1) the Sun has entered a phase of minimum since 2008, probably a grand minimum similar to the Dalton or Maunder ones, with direct and profound implications for the (cooling of the) climate.

(2) The snow cover of the NH has had (*coherently with the solar minimum fact*) successive records since the minimum began

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Screen_shot_2013-05-30_at_9.42.56_AM.png

(3) Despite the fact that the Arctic ice extent has had pronounced minimums of ice extent in recent years, this does not mean that the same has never happened before, or that the ice is not recovering or it’s in a steady downward trend, as the comment of the link you posted implies.

In fact, the unbiased analysis shows exactly the opposite:

“…The first -DA summer since 1996 has lead to a 45% recovery in minimum ice extent. If we can string together two more -DA summers, or even neutral summers, we should return to the mid 1990s average by 2016…

http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&p=655796

and

“… The circulatory regime asociated with the DA (dipole anomaly) is associated with (tends to precede) the AMO/NMM fluctuations. We flipped to the predominately +DA summer mode in the 1980s, but from 1997-2012, we saw a strong +DA every summer…an event not seen since the 1920-1946 period.

If this is truly a regime change, then we could see a significant recovery in the multi-year ice pack, as more ice would get trapped in the Beaufort gyre rather than be flushed out the Fram Strait …”

http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&p=654167

As exemplified by the fast recovery after the WWII years,

http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/arctic-sea-ice-data-collected-by-dmi-1893-1961-259.php

and additional comments here,

http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&p=649547

The NP temperatures follow closely the world’s average (the Arctic is the great “thermometer” of the world)

http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&p=649527

and

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/ARCTIC11.jpg

(4) The Arctic ice at the peak of the winters of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012 and this year were comparable to the maximums of the beginning of the century (2002-03), clearly indicating that the system is dynamically reacting and showing a trend to recover, you can see this in the DMI graph,

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png

in the cryosphere graph

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png

or JAXA.

(5) Earth’s geomagnetic field is decreasing and the MNP is migrating, which affects cloud cover especially in a period of strong solar radiations as we had last century,

http://www.rocketscientistsjournal.com/2007/07/SOLARWIND_files/image004.png

(5a) There have been strong winds in NP since the end of last century, connected with the positive phase of the AMO (since 1995), the lowering of Earth’s geomagnetic field and migrating MNP,

http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&p=613792

(6) The present AMO oscillation has been the strongest positive one since records began for this anomaly, as expected from the connection with strong solar radiations at the end of the XX century.

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/ARCTIC10.jpg

and (link broken due to government shut down)

http://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/atm/amo.php

and

“… As for what drives the AMO, there is a growing wealth of scientific literature that points to fluctuations in the Solar Wind and its influence on the global electric circuit/cloud microphysics as a potential electrodynamic forcing amplification… “

http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=33725&p=651909

(7) Etc.

This is not even a summary, just the tip of the iceberg (pun intended).

Note that I didn’t say a single word about the cooling SH oceans and the expanding icecap (and cooling) of the Antarctic continent.

There is more, and more and more.

If you want to study this “problem” seriously, you’ll probably become a skeptical like the rest of us…

 

Of course I dont expect everyone to study this seriously.

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http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/045001/pdf/1748-9326_8_4_045001.pdf

 

New paper: The interplanetary magnetic field influences mid-latitude surface atmospheric pressure

Extract:

"In particular, it affects the structure of the Rossby waveeld, which is key in determining the trajectory of storm tracks [24]. The conguration of the North Atlantic jet stream is particularly susceptible to changes in forcing [25]. In turn, so are the location and the timing of blocking events in this region, in which vortices are shed from the jet stream leading to prolonged periods of low or of high pressure"

 

05c4b7918392b33abdf4b41105597c41.jpg

 

0cebc7bb3a6ff98e194e4cf823867178.jpg

 

ur hypothesis is that the mid-latitude surface pressure is
inuenced by IMF By via a two-stage process. (i) As IMF By
changes from dawnward to duskward, the electric potential
difference between the ionosphere and the Earth’s surface, V, and
the sea-level pressure p, decrease in the northern polar region;
(ii) the mean zonal wind U at mid-latitudes increases resulting in an
increase in the meridional wavelength (for simplicity labelled L in
this gure; in text referred to as L ) of the stationary Rossby wave
with an integer number of azimuthal waves m (at co-latitude and
latitude D 90 ). The variations in V;p; U and L are reversed
in the Southern Hemisphere.


Abstract

The existence of a meteorological response in the polar regions to uctuations in the interplanetary magnetic eld (IMF) component By is well established. More controversially, there is evidence to suggest that this Sun–weather coupling occurs via the global atmospheric electric circuit. Consequently, it has been assumed that the effect is maximized at high latitudes and is negligible at low and mid-latitudes, because the perturbation by the IMF is concentrated in the polar regions. We demonstrate a previously unrecognized inuence of the IMF By on mid-latitude surface pressure. The difference between the mean surface pressures during times of high positive and high negative IMF By possesses a statistically signicant mid-latitude wave structure similar to atmospheric Rossby waves. Our results show that a mechanism that is known to produce atmospheric responses to the IMF in the polar regions is
also able to modulate pre-existing weather patterns at mid-latitudes. We suggest the mechanism for this from conventional meteorology. The amplitude of the effect is comparable to typical initial analysis uncertainties in ensemble numerical weather prediction. Thus, a relatively localized small-amplitude solar infuence on the upper atmosphere could have an important effect, via the nonlinear evolution of atmospheric dynamics, on critical atmospheric processes.

Keywords: solar variability, global surface pressure, global atmospheric electric circuit,
atmospheric Rossby waves

Extract of Discussion & Conclusion

Previously, proposals to link solar wind variations to signicant weather or climate variability have been dismissed on the grounds that the magnitude of the energy change in the atmosphere associated with the solar wind variability is far too small to impact the Earth’s system. However, this argument neglects the importance of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics [20]. The amplitudes of the IMF-related changes in atmospheric pressure gradient are comparable with the initial uncertainties in the corresponding zonal wind used in ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) [21] of 1 m s1. Such uncertainties are known to be important to subsequent atmospheric evolution and forecasting [22]. Consequently, we have shown that a relatively localized and small-amplitude solar inuence on the upper polar atmosphere could have an important effect, via the nonlinear evolution of atmospheric dynamics on critical processes such as European climate and the breakup of Arctic sea ice [23]. In particular, it affects the structure of the Rossby waveeld, which is key in determining the trajectory of storm tracks [24]. The conguration of the North Atlantic jet stream is particularly susceptible to changes in forcing [25]. In turn, so are the location and the timing of blocking events in this region, in which vortices are shed from the jet stream leading to prolonged periods of low or of high pressure [26]. It has also been proposed that the low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) arises as a result of variations in the occurrence of upper-level Rossby wavebreaking events over the North Atlantic [27]. The NAO itself is key to climate variability over the Atlantic–European sector stretching from the east coast of the United States to Siberia, and the Arctic to the subtropical Atlantic [28, 25].

 

 

(so like I've been saying for...how long, now? magnetism, magnetism, magnetism.)

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