Financial tips for the bums

[joeblast]

1 hour ago, thelerner said:

I call it capitalism, and think banks, loans and credit are good things.  Powerful tools, while they can be misused, when handled intelligently create much prosperity.   Its great to buy a house and take out a 30 year mortgage, rather then wait 30 years til you're 50 to save up enough to buy it, or similarly a car. 

 

Such loans do 'create' money, increasing the 'velocity of money' (an important element in monetary theory and why inflation didn't raise its head earlier), but that's not bad in my book.  As long as debts can be repaid, and people don't over reach, its all good.  No need to bring mockingbirds, gold or Central banks into the equation.  Loans are what banks do. 

 

Are there 'theorists' who don't use loans or credit cards for fear that they'll add to the counterfeiting by Central bank forgers who create mockingbirds?  Whose idea of Capitalism doesn't have banks, loans or interest rates?   Okaay.    Please consider the above rhetorical and not an opening to explain conspiracy theory. 

Financial asset stripping is not capitalism.  Counterfeiting is not capitalism.  In fact, when there is an entity that can legally (notice I did not say lawfully) counterfeit, then there is simply no way that things can thusly be called capitalism.  (Not if one is both honest and cares about the accuracy of the verbiage being used.)

 

A bank is a much different entity than a central bank.

 

A loan, when backed by real collateral, is a good thing.  When its made with no collateral, it is misuse.  Federal Reserve Notes made by counterfeiting are an insidious theft from the American people.

 

So as long as things like that are conflated, no wonder there's confusing an inapplicable verbiage used here.

 

People that go as far as your hypothetical will usually just disconnect from the system entirely.  People who want to stay connected to society and are cognizant of certain facts, will limit their exposure to the theft known as central banking.

Edited January 26, 2018 by joeblast

[joeblast]

So I wound up putting a lot of the processor info on the DT thread...there's so much deep state overlap there, it was somewhat in context.

 

BUT....I'm sure people have seen all these massive bitcoin thefts....how do you think they are getting accomplished??  Your encryption key is only as secure as where its stored, and when its sitting there in the secondary processor cache, that the nsa in conjunction with intel, decided was a good idea to put easy access there, ya know, so they can keep you safe...

 

Well, it wasnt a problem for them to have this in existence, until it was discovered and leaked out, and the wrong people started getting hacked....now all of a sudden its a problem and people need to know about it, lol....(in with this is all kinds of serious Windows vulnerabilities, that they discovered and kept to themselves, too.....or did they?  Because its already well known that microsoft has been in bed with the NSA since windows 98 SE, when the windows OS was first compromised...)

 

So in a nutshell, if anyone has an appreciable amount of bitcoin...

DO NOT store it on a computer that has an Intel processor!

(I'd also say, dont even make a bitcoin transaction on a computer with an Intel processor!  If you have enough bitcoin to be concerned with, then you should also have the resources to safeguard them - buy a computer with an AMD chip!)

DO store it on a removable something that you can completely remove from the network!

 

Edited January 27, 2018 by joeblast

[Spotless]

The economy has been put on crack again on top of what was already a good solid economic recovery - we will see a definite strong economic flourish for at least two years before another crash. This time inflation will be a key component across the board.

 

War/military related stocks should be looked at and all areas that benefit from protectionist gyrations and police state.

 

Diamond dog collars and the like will make a comeback - and services addressing the wealthy will rise.

 

Expensive toys will gain even more in popularity. I'm in the marine industry where the only segment of real growth for years now has been in MegaYachts with nearly every other segment showing year over year decline - MegaYachts will take a big jump with the crack given to the economy.

 

Generally states will be doing even less infrastructure work and all things associated with less revenue should be considered.

 

Large amounts of money will be going overseas to realestate as things here become even more absurd and as the mobile economy takes ever increasing leaps. Keeping an eye on trends in VRBO and AirBnB makes sense - grabbing a place here and there and getting income is becoming easier and popular. 

 

Trends in HOA management companies = it is one of the best ways to steal from homeowners with rediculous fees and selling to vendors that are affiliated with the same management company. In house under the table deals.

 

Fun bright spots - watch drone transportation - small personal flying machines = these will go mainstream to an extent and be available under 100K. Medical evacuation possibilities = military apps - definitely a up and commer - startups to be bought up by the giants.

 

All levels of "fuck the public" will gain popularity as "self regulation" gains mainstream madness once again. Deregulation of major safeguards will be in vogue. Lots of special financing for cities in need = higher sales tax (if that is possible ).

 

Big jump in Donation scammers has to be comming.

 

Very high end luxury cars will take a jump - arts and wine - high end clothing - personal jets. Small jet rental companies will soar and club jet rental services like SurfAir etc. (nice to fly with them by the way).

 

Cosmetic surgery centers could be looked at as well as highend retirement centers. High end resort travel companies will take a brief leap for several years. High end camping supply and retailing will jump.

 

3D printing is going to soar to incredible heights = many related 3D applications coming on - it will change how our entire planet does things.

 

 

Somewhat dreary look at whats happening but it is such a regular occurrence with the current type of administration here in the USA. This time round it will truely be like being on crack.

Edited January 28, 2018 by Spotless

[thelerner]

The tax cut has been a good idea, and is indeed standard Republican platform stuff.  While I've been making out like a bandit, my dog, if I had one, would have 2 diamond collars, one for itself, another to wrap around its rear end, just for show.  Anyhow, I think a moderate Republican President would have listened to the other side and compromised.  Aiming more benefits to the middle class and poor.  Gaining some bi-partisan support, and there were a couple of Dems who'd listen and indeed reached out for such.

 

You could still have substantial cuts and directly help those who haven't seen much benefit.  It's good economics too, since they spend the money, invigorating local shops, whereas the wealthier tend to stash it.   It'd be good politics too.  I assume in the coming year or two, many poor (10,000's? 100,000s? millions?) will have there health care canceled, and probably other programs too.   Some will die and it won't be pretty.   A substantial number of Trump voters (rural) will get little or no benefit from a booming stock market.   While some benefits will trickle down, the bridge between rich and poor will increase.   With the super rich doing particularly well. 

 

The Reaganomics and its mind set are indeed back in play, and they were a mixed bag.  I expect the general stock market and commodities to continue to do well.  I'd recommend against investors chasing what's hot and going for safer, more boring investments.. broad market ETF's (SPY, DIA..) or mutual funds, or higher dividend vehicles, since prices move up and down, but dividends are what you keep (or if possible reinvest). 

 

 

[joeblast]

Another thing that need a massive reboot and rooting out of corruption and lobbying, health...*bitestongue* "care".....

 

Certainly the unconstitutional globalist crash-the-flawed-"market" legislation didnt make things any better except to have a bunch of extra people pile on so as to get another camel' head under the tent on blowing up the country' finances, with IMF loan ready for y00 so that your great grandchildren can never pay it off...

 

All about the fiatz and the legal hand on the printing presses...dont expect that they couldnt take the dollar to plaid if too many big name get indicted, since their hand is also on that treason-lever.  Social Security provided ripe ground for fraud and graft and the healthcare financing to the moon scheme is just the same.

[joeblast]

 

 

lol we have no answers at all....oh, but we do, but we wont be shown what they are, when things like this happen.

 

if anyone doesnt know that the algorithms will mess with your trading....

 

 

Edited February 11, 2018 by joeblast

[thelerner]

In the long run (10 years plus) the stock market's been the best hedge against inflation and way to grow your savings.  It may not make you rich, but it can make you comfortable.  Slow, 'dumb' money invested over the long term is smart.  By dumb I mean invested in the larger ETF's or mutual funds that cover a wide swath of the market. 

 

I forget who said it, but diversity is the only real 'free lunch' the market gives.  And time, it can be as valuable as amount, ie invest early, reinvest dividends and let compounding interest get rolling.  Seemingly crappy stocks can become brilliant, given enough time and a little luck. 

 

I like 50% in broad funds (like SPY, DIA, VYM, QQQ's or the many similar vehicles), 30% in higher dividend payers (4%+ w/ historical appreciation) and another 20% in more speculative stocks..something with a story(examp SMG, solid boring stock, but getting into hydroponics thus MJ).  As you get older there's sense to make some room for bonds, but I find they're frozen money, better to have a dividend stock (or REIT) that has potential to grow in price and steadily in dividend rate then a bond that while less volatile tend to be frozen in both.  My own conceit, most experts recommend older savers have bonds for safety. 

 

Stocks can be like crops, right soil and climate and they do well but when climate changes, slowly change your make up.  In a world where FANG rules.. (Facebook Amazon Netflix Google) get some fund (like QQQ's or FDN) that's heavy with them. 

 

Like crops, some you prune, some you dig up, others are fruit trees and you let'em grow and turn into more trees.  Diversifying will keep you out of trouble.  Like your stocks but don't love them.  Simple does well, exotic.. perishes.

 

You can honor a drought or storm by taking some action, but don't panic.  Walk don't run.  Things are rarely all or nothing, and it can be wiser to sell a small portion then panic.  For dividends stocks, falling to lower prices mean getting more shares, that can be very good long term.  On the other hand, one saying from Kramer is Don't buy and hold, buy and homework.  Read articles and look for fundamental shifts that could put 'your' companies at risk.  If it might be, then walk the money somewhere safer. 

 

last thought. 

I can understand why for recent entrants the market correction (-10%ish) has been frightening, but for those of us who've been in the market for decades, it was more like, What took it so long? 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 12, 2018 by thelerner

[Aetherous]

This was kind of cool to see the other day, to get an idea of the trading software...
 

I looked into this company, Citadel...you need to be a multi millionaire to invest with them and get in on this type of trading! 

[thelerner]

12 hours ago, Aetherous said:

This was kind of cool to see the other day, to get an idea of the trading software...
 

I looked into this company, Citadel...you need to be a multi millionaire to invest with them and get in on this type of trading! 

Stuff like that historically crashes and burns due to black swans.  Unfortunately while it lasts it'll tend to accelerate market moves, since such programs usually use trend following algorithms.  Yet since the beginning, forces infront and behind the market have always been able to take advantage of little inconsistencies.  Inevitably once they're fully exploited, they disappear. 

 

A couple years ago Warren Buffet bet a hedge fund a million bucks they couldn't beat the market.  He won handily (http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1).  Note the Hedge fund used the latest and greatest etc., etc.  Being too smart, getting too far into schemes, speed and options.. or anything you don't understand or couldn't explain simply is not a good route to take in the long run.  Keep thing simple and better to invest in a SWAN (Sleep Well At Night) then be taken by a Black Swan (unusual downward event that happen way more often then expected.) 

 

For most, a site like Wealthfront.com is a smart rational investment vehicle.  I'm kinda proud my 18 year found it and is investing part of the money he gets tutoring math into it regularly.   

[joeblast]

13 hours ago, Aetherous said:

This was kind of cool to see the other day, to get an idea of the trading software...
 

I looked into this company, Citadel...you need to be a multi millionaire to invest with them and get in on this type of trading! 

High frequency trading algorithms are an utter abomination and need to be made ILLEGAL.......ASAP.....

[Aetherous]

1 hour ago, thelerner said:

For most, a site like Wealthfront.com is a smart rational investment vehicle.  I'm kinda proud my 18 year found it and is investing part of the money he gets tutoring math into it regularly.   

 

I have a friend who made 16% annual return with Betterment (similar service to Wealthfront) this past year.

At the same time, I had done Investopedia's stock simulator, roughly using Paul Merrimon's ultimate buy and hold strategies, and made 17%. Today my simulator is sitting at 9% due to the market conditions.

The VTI (total market) ETF seems great...while I made 17%, it made 21%...today it's at 16%.

[Aetherous]

48 minutes ago, joeblast said:

High frequency trading algorithms are an utter abomination and need to be made ILLEGAL.......ASAP.....

 

Why should they be illegal?

[joeblast]

22 minutes ago, Aetherous said:

 

Why should they be illegal?

Its basically rigging the market by anyone who can pay enough to have the closest, fastest access to the market.  It makes humans utterly obsolete and basically unable to execute a fair trade on the market.  Price discovery is a joke where algos can push you around to whatever they're programmed to do. 

 

When microseconds count....your click of the mouse is only seconds away...

 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-11-29/sneaky-exchanges-and-hft

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-01/sec-has-opened-several-hft-probes

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/europe-begins-push-ban-hft-calls-quote-stuffing-market-abuse-dark-pools-tragic-error-and-exp

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-03/hft-growing-cancer-says-mom-and-pops-favorite-retail-broker-charles-schwab

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/interactive-brokers-peterffy-lashes-out-against-broken-market-nanex-conclusively-proves-hfts

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-31/market-rigged-michael-lewis-explains-how-hfts-screw-investors-every-day

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-18/these-are-10-liquidity-providing-hft-firms-sec-investigating

 

you can just keep going and going with articles about it, I'm surprised people dont know about how much of a scam they are.

Edited February 12, 2018 by joeblast
zh has been railing for years about these, but it lets fat cats make a lot of money and skim off schlubs, so....

[liminal_luke]

2 hours ago, thelerner said:

 Being too smart, getting too far into schemes, speed and options.. or anything you don't understand or couldn't explain simply is not a good route to take in the long run.  Keep thing simple and better to invest in a SWAN (Sleep Well At Night) then be taken by a Black Swan (unusual downward event that happen way more often then expected.) 

  

 

So no trading XIV then? 

[thelerner]

On 2/12/2018 at 3:15 PM, liminal_luke said:

 

So no trading XIV then? 

Never say never. 

Strangely, short & dumb, can be very smart lucrative.   and fun.   So, a little bit in the oddball category from XIV or bitcoin can be good.  Not long term and not with more then a percentage points of your entire savings.  

 

For me, its about honoring my instincts, but not absolutely trust them.  Ie, if i feel a correction is coming, I'll sell a little bit, or buy a put or two.  If it seems I'm correct, I'll do a little more.  But from long experience, I've learned walking in a direction is better then running.  If you've got a strong feeling for bitcoin, buy a little, maybe find an etf or fractional coin that gives you a taste.

 

But buying is less then half the equation.  Knowing when to sell, is more then half and then there's getting back in.  Human psychology makes us naturally poor investors.  Not only do we (& professionals) do worse then the market average, even when investing in the market average we do worse then it, because our instincts have us buy and sell at the wrong times. 

 

A friend and I have a running joke that the market gods are watching and they are vengeful**.  So often as soon as you make an investment it immediately goes down.  Nasty especially when it goes down after good news.  The reality is there's a thousand of you(s) buying a thousand of you(s) selling and a market maker inbetween seeing the orders and stop orders and working to make their own largest 'cut'.  

 

**Perhaps the reason why so often a stock goes down as soon as you buy could be due to a 'Rick & Morty' phenomena.  Rick is always saying he has infinite selves living out his life in other dimensions.  To some extent We are not alone in our ideas.  Those with similar mind sets are doing the same thing we are for the same reasons, cause they have the same data conscious and unconscious.

 

So we're likely in the middle of the herd of Us's buying after the first half has raised the price.  The early buyers have there bump and are now selling (to us) having made a quick 5% on the upside.  This is not the worst thing, especially if your a long term investor.  A few points here or there won't make or break you.  Still not a bad idea to have a buy list (& sell list) and keep track of how a stock behavior before for a while; know why it goes up and down (news.. or floating on a markets movement like a beach ball..)

 

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by thelerner

[Papayapple]

On 12.02.2018 at 7:15 AM, Aetherous said:

This was kind of cool to see the other day, to get an idea of the trading software...
 

I looked into this company, Citadel...you need to be a multi millionaire to invest with them and get in on this type of trading! 

it's cool that two guys they're sitting on exercise balls

[joeblast]

20 hours ago, liminal_luke said:

 

So no trading XIV then? 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-13/whistleblower-exposes-rampant-manipulation-vix

 

 

anyone that does any stock messings should have zh in their favorites 

Edited February 13, 2018 by joeblast

[Rara]

On 12/01/2017 at 4:22 AM, Rishi Das said:

 

I was always taught to have cash to cover the cost, pay with credit, and immediately pay it off. Not only are you building your credit but will also be taking advantage of 'rewards' program points.

 

 

This. I got my first credit card when I had a few grand in the bank. Play the game!

[thelerner]

Michael Batnick collects some of the best most insightful articles on the market, behavioral aspects as well as synopsis of dry financial research that few would have the opportunity or will to read.  Many good balanced insights from reading his handful of articles of the week- http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/02/18/these-are-the-goods-49/

Edited February 19, 2018 by thelerner

[thelerner]

If you find yourself buying much from Amazon it makes sense to look into a Amazon credit card, especially if you're a prime member.  The prime rewards card is free and gives you 5% back.  We've been buying (& renting) college text books from Amazon and its expensive but cheaper then the university book store.  The card gives 5% back on Amazon purchases, 2% back on gas, restaurants and drugstores, and 1% on everything else.  It has no yearly fee and no foreign transaction fee (rare, most other cards charge an ouchy 3 to 5% outside the states). 

 

If you shop at Target, they also have a 5% back credit card. 

 

In my view, this is free money.  As long as you'll be responsible and pay the debt off on time.  If you can't, then maybe having a single card (lowest interest is most important then) might make life easier.  Or in that case, perhaps play the credit card swap game, swinging from no interest for 6 months card to the next as long as is allowed, knowing that debt is tricky and out of control it can turn you into a penniless indentured servant.   So be careful, better to limit buys to needs then go into debt. 

 

On the third hand, as my sister often points out to me, if we don't support local stores, they and there jobs, and the financial eco system of our towns will dry up.  So.. that's a counter reason not to buy from the big box corporate mega opolies  Still for some things, they do make sense. 

[joeblast]

hehe...and Amazon, Target, are on my list of boycotted corporations.  in the corporate world, your money is your vote, so I try to be reasonably informed about the places I do business with.

 

but, when dad gives me an amazon gift card for xmas, I consider the money already spent, and order up...

[Aetherous]

Does anyone do real estate investing...owning multiple properties that you rent out and having a property management company do everything? That's looking like where my future will be heading.

https://www.biggerpockets.com seems to be a great resource for this. Robert Kiyosaki also seems to be a good resource on how to think about this stuff in general...such as why people should invest in assets like this. Morris Invest on youtube has some videos which describes some real estate investing basics, and although it seems to be created for getting people to purchase properties through his company, it does appear to have good info.

[Aetherous]

Also, I'd go back and edit some posts of mine, but that would take up more time than I want to spend on this...

So here's my opinion these days (not that I'm an expert, clearly still learning).

For stock market investing, I really just like the idea of Paul Merriman's ultimate buy and hold strategy, using ETFs through Vanguard. Either doing portfolio 7 to be super diversified, or portfolio 8 to be riskier yet likely fare better in the end.

[rideforever]

The stock market is totally rigged.   It just becomes another whole to suck your life force out of you and leave you as a soulless zombie.

And what will you buy with your millions anyway ?

How many years you have left - you want to spend them playing these games ?

Do you hate the universe that much ?

Why not invest in doing something that you like or that might be useful somewhere for some thing.   Work done for its own sake, work done to keep you honest.   Would that not be a better use of a life.

How much poison do you think you can swallow before your heart dies ?

[thelerner]

I think the stock market is a way to grow your money, probably not to get rich or make millions but grow it 5 to 10% a year.  Nor do I think it takes alot of time.  I find a portfolio 1/3 to 1/2 large ETF's that cover large pieces of the market (SPY, DIA, QQQ..), 1/3 or 1/4 in solid high dividend stocks, and the last 1/3 or 1/4 in companies with promise and growth. 

 

Set and forget (preferably re-invest dividends if possible).. you'll have good years, bad years, but in the long run you'll make 5 to 11% (due to compounding perhaps quite a bit more after 10 or 15 years).  Hopefully allowing you to live comfortably, provide security for your family, and perhaps have a chance to see what this big world has to offer. 

 

Intelligent investing, acquiring assets allows you to help others, ie philanthropy.  Money is a form of energy- good evil or neutral.  A good person can do much good with it.